Saturday’s Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Caulfield will provide a runner for next month’s $5 million All-Star Mile, but it also might take one away with three-year-old Super Seth’s (Dundeel) place not yet guaranteed.
Last spring’s Caulfield Guineas winner is likely to run as favourite against the older horses in the eight-horse weight-for-age field on Saturday, but if Super Seth does not win, connections are expected to drop him out of All-Star Mile contention as they search for a crucial autumn Group One.
Super Seth already has enormous worth as a budding stallion via his storming Guineas win and an autumn Group One victory – be it against older horses or in a classic race like the Randwick Guineas – would add another thick layer of value to his future career.
Even the $2.25m first prize for The All-Star Mile would look small change compared to an autumn Group One against his name when they come to market the son of Dundeel as a stallion.
There are several autumn options for the colt. Super Seth can easily switch to the $1m Randwick Guineas over 1600m on March 7 as the race is two weeks after the Futurity.
A run in the Australian Guineas at Flemington is less attractive as it requires a seven-day back-up from the Futurity.
The Futurity Stakes and next week’s Blamey Stakes guarantee its winners a spot in The All-Star Mile with the final three places to be sorted through the allocation of wildcards.
Super Seth finished 10th in the public voting for The All-Star Mile and so was granted a spot in the race, but if his connections refuse the chance, the race is unlikely to suffer too much as it appears certain he would be replaced by a Group One winner.
Under condition 19 of the All-Star Mile: “The provisional emergency runners will be listed in order between 1200 metres and 2050 metres from February 1, 2019 until final acceptances in March, 2020 from highest to lowest.”
Of those horses that didn’t gain an automatic spot via the public vote, Castelvecchio, Alizee, Avilius and Fierce Impact are next in line as they are the next-highest money earners.
However, with the stipulation that prizemoney is only counted from February 1 last year and that prizemoney earned in bonus races does not to count, it appears Fierce Impact, who has won two G1s in that period, could be leading the pack if an emergency is required.
Racing Victoria plans to announce the four provisional emergencies on Tuesday.
